• News Archive
  • Simaster
  • Webmail
  • Directory
  •  English
    • Indonesia
Universitas Gadjah Mada Universitas Gadjah Mada Universitas Gadjah Mada Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Education
    • Doctoral dissertation
    • Inauguration of Professor
    • Graduation
  • Achievement
  • Research and Innovation
    • Research
    • Innovation
  • Campus Info
    • Cooperation
    • Seminar and Workshop
    • Student Community Service Program
    • Other
  • News Report
  • Home
  • News Report
  • UGM Expert: Community Discipline is One of the Keys to Block Covid-19 Increase

UGM Expert: Community Discipline is One of the Keys to Block Covid-19 Increase

  • 20 July 2020, 13:27 WIB
  • By: Natasa Adelayanti
  • 716
  • PDF Version
Pakar UGM: Akhir Pandemi di Tanah Air Tergantung Kedisiplinan Masyarakat Patuhi Protokol Kesehatan

Prof. Dedi Rosadi as Professor of Statistics at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) Yogyakarta, conveyed his team's newest prediction regarding the end of the coronavirus pandemic in Indonesia.

He said the ultimate prediction of a pandemic depends on government policy and community discipline to comply with the Covid-19 preventive health protocol.

"Government policies and community discipline of the new normal protocol are the keys to blocking the increase in the rate of Covid-19 patients," he explained on Monday (7/20).

Along with FMIPA UGM alumni, Drs. Joko Kristadi, MSi., and Dr. Fidelis Diponegoro, S.Si., MM., the prediction assessment based on the freshest data tracking and using various data-driven modelling approaches (based on data flow) appealed that there is a significant increase in the value of positive case projections of the pandemic compared to the estimates submitted earlier in June 2020 back then. The most optimistic predictions collected using the SIR-Regression-time-compartment hybrid model and the estimation is that the pandemic will end in early November 2020 with a total positive case of around 112 thousand sufferers.

On the other hand, the distinct data estimation obtained with the Indonesia Covid-19 Probabilistic Data-Driven Model pandemic would experience a great peak at the end of July to the end of August 2020. Besides, at the end of February 2021, there is estimation with a total of positive cases of around 227 thousand sufferers. The observation shows that the transmission rate (Rt) is still above one, which is worth 1.08 on July 17, 2020.

Based on these predictions, Dedi delivered several important notes that need to be of mutual concern at this time. First, the calculation of Rt Covid-19 Indonesia in the last few days is still around 1.08. This number shows that the national transmission in several provinces or regencies, which is the epicentre of the spread of Covid 19 still become a national concern.

Then, look at the situation of several world countries such as Japan, Australia, Morocco, Greece, Hong Kong, Croatia, Israel has seen the emergence of a second wave pattern of positive cases after the relaxation of the lockdown policy. This pattern has not yet applied for Indonesia. However, in Indonesia, there is an increase in the number of additional daily patients (incidence) compared to before the era of a new habit adaptation.

Not only that, but it is also necessary to control the spread more optimally in the main epicentre in Indonesia, for example like East Java, DKI Jakarta, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan. The control measure meant by intensifying Tracing, Test & Treatment (3T) along with community discipline.

"Also, the control of other potentially dangerous provinces such as Central Java, North Sumatra, Bali, South Sumatra and Papua needs to be optimized so that Indonesia can be more optimistic looking forward," he said.

Author: Ika
Photo: shutterstock.com
Translator: Natasa A

Related News

  • Lack Discipline of 3T and 5M Movements Made it Hard to End Pandemic by August 2021

    Wednesday,03 March 2021 - 9:16
  • UGM Expert: The End of the Pandemic Depends on the Control of Covid-19 Transmission

    Thursday,24 September 2020 - 19:24
  • UGM Expert: Community Still Must Adhere to Health Protocols After Vaccines Released

    Monday,19 October 2020 - 20:12
  • UGM Epidemiology Expert: A New Variant of Covid-19 Is Potential to Exist in Indonesia

    Tuesday,23 February 2021 - 15:18
  • Ganjar Pranowo: Family Role to Prevent Covid-19 Is Necessary

    Tuesday,14 July 2020 - 12:02

News Releases

  • UGM Students Win International Chess Tournament 19 May 2022
    UGM representatives have been named winners at the 25th GA
    Salma
  • UGM Researchers Breed New Black Soybean Cultivar 17 May 2022
    A team of researchers at the UGM Faculty of Agriculture is
    Salma
  • UGM Inaugurates New Professor of Chemical Engineering 13 May 2022
    Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) celebrated the promotion of
    Salma
  • UGM Among World’s 10 Best Universities to Deliver SDG 1 10 May 2022
    Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) was ranked in the top 10 glo
    Salma
  • UGM Receives WIPO IP Enterprise Medal 29 April 2022
    Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) has picked up the WIPO IP En
    Salma

Info

  • Install Fest Windows
    29 September 2017
  • Streaming Author Workshop Writing and Publishing
    14 July 2017
  • Hokkaido University Short Term Exchange Program HUSTEP
    08 January 2016
  • 2016 Amgen Scholars Program in Japan
    08 January 2016
  • Jardine Foundation Scholarship for Postgraduate Studies at University of Oxford and University of Cambridge
    01 July 2015

Event

  • 30May International Academic Conference on Tourism (INTACT) 2022 ...
  • 21Jul The International Conference on Sustainable Environment, Agriculture, and Tourism (ICOSEAT)...
  • 07Sep The 8th International Conference on Science and Technology (ICST 2022)...
Universitas Gadjah Mada
UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA
Bulaksumur Yogyakarta 55281
   info@ugm.ac.id
   +62 (274) 588688
   +62 (274) 565223
   +62 811 2869 988

PARTNERSHIP

  • Alumni
  • International Affairs

ABOUT UGM

  • Rector's Welcome
  • History
  • Vission and Mission
  • The Board of Executive
  • Management

VISIT UGM

  • Campus Map
  • Event

REGISTRATION

  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Vocational School
  • Professional Program
  • International Program

© 2022 Universitas Gadjah Mada

PRIVACY POLICYCONTACT