Prof. Dedi Rosadi as Professor of Statistics at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) Yogyakarta, conveyed his team's newest prediction regarding the end of the coronavirus pandemic in Indonesia.
He said the ultimate prediction of a pandemic depends on government policy and community discipline to comply with the Covid-19 preventive health protocol.
"Government policies and community discipline of the new normal protocol are the keys to blocking the increase in the rate of Covid-19 patients," he explained on Monday (7/20).
Along with FMIPA UGM alumni, Drs. Joko Kristadi, MSi., and Dr. Fidelis Diponegoro, S.Si., MM., the prediction assessment based on the freshest data tracking and using various data-driven modelling approaches (based on data flow) appealed that there is a significant increase in the value of positive case projections of the pandemic compared to the estimates submitted earlier in June 2020 back then. The most optimistic predictions collected using the SIR-Regression-time-compartment hybrid model and the estimation is that the pandemic will end in early November 2020 with a total positive case of around 112 thousand sufferers.
On the other hand, the distinct data estimation obtained with the Indonesia Covid-19 Probabilistic Data-Driven Model pandemic would experience a great peak at the end of July to the end of August 2020. Besides, at the end of February 2021, there is estimation with a total of positive cases of around 227 thousand sufferers. The observation shows that the transmission rate (Rt) is still above one, which is worth 1.08 on July 17, 2020.
Based on these predictions, Dedi delivered several important notes that need to be of mutual concern at this time. First, the calculation of Rt Covid-19 Indonesia in the last few days is still around 1.08. This number shows that the national transmission in several provinces or regencies, which is the epicentre of the spread of Covid 19 still become a national concern.
Then, look at the situation of several world countries such as Japan, Australia, Morocco, Greece, Hong Kong, Croatia, Israel has seen the emergence of a second wave pattern of positive cases after the relaxation of the lockdown policy. This pattern has not yet applied for Indonesia. However, in Indonesia, there is an increase in the number of additional daily patients (incidence) compared to before the era of a new habit adaptation.
Not only that, but it is also necessary to control the spread more optimally in the main epicentre in Indonesia, for example like East Java, DKI Jakarta, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan. The control measure meant by intensifying Tracing, Test & Treatment (3T) along with community discipline.
"Also, the control of other potentially dangerous provinces such as Central Java, North Sumatra, Bali, South Sumatra and Papua needs to be optimized so that Indonesia can be more optimistic looking forward," he said.
Translator: Natasa A