The 2024 Simultaneous Regional Elections (Pilkada) results highlight the latest political dynamics. The Department of Politics and Government (DPP) of the UGM Faculty of Social and Political Sciences (Fisipol UGM) analyzed the winning coalition map across 545 regions.
The findings revealed that the winners were predictable in most regions even before the election.
UGM students and faculty members presented this analysis at a press conference on Wednesday, March 5, 2025.
Akhmad Fadillah, a Fisipol UGM student who conducted the research, mentioned that only 131 out of 545 regions experienced competitive contests in the 2024 Simultaneous Pilkada.
“Based on the research, only 24.04% of regions had competitive contests, while over 75% of the regions had predictable winners even before the election,” said Fadillah.
The survey results indicate that the level of competition in regional elections is no longer ideal as a platform for exchanging ideas.
“There is concern that elections are becoming merely a formality in power distribution,” he added.
The coalition map shows that large coalition groups with majority parties dominated the Pilkada winners.
These groups formed in 239 regions, or 43.85% of the total regions.
Additionally, 133 regions, or 24.40%, were Surplus Majority Coalitions, holding significant legislative power.
The remaining areas comprise a Grand Coalition, comprising 7.34% or 40 regions, where large winning party coalitions formed.
The dominance of these large coalitions has narrowed the space for competition, as smaller parties or coalitions face disproportionately strong opponents.
“This greatly diminishes the essence of democracy, which should involve predictable procedures but unpredictable results. Yet, we can already predict the winners before the election,” explained Fadillah.
This phenomenon, referred to as an Uncontested Election, is where only major players can win.
This leads to a concentration of power within certain political elites, leaving the voices of other public representatives unaddressed.
Alfath Bagus Panuntun, a lecturer from DPP UGM, revealed that elections in Indonesia are increasingly driven by pragmatism rather than democracy.
One factor is the rising cost of politics, making it difficult for all social groups to participate equally.
“The increasing cost of politics is something predictable. People tend to support figures with significant social capital,” said Panuntun.
He noted that today’s political climate only allows two groups to advance in elections: those with political family backgrounds and business elites or oligarchs.
It is rare to find candidates who come from grassroots communities and have gone through party training processes to become candidates.
Panuntun added that this has led to a new phenomenon known as “democracy fatigue.”
“People have lost trust because they feel nothing will change after the elections. This is a national symptom in our democracy,” he concluded.
However, various efforts have been made to restore and strengthen democracy.
One solution is to push for regulations that promote healthier competition.
Strengthening regulations and their enforcement is essential, ensuring that well-crafted rules are implemented effectively.
“When election fraud is detected, the procedures to address it are lengthy, often resulting in no consequences for the candidates. This is also a challenge,” said Tri Noviana, an Islamic and Social Studies Institute (LKIS) representative.
According to Noviana, regulations cannot be enforced without the involvement of all election participants, including candidates, parties, and the public.
Every element plays a crucial role in restoring healthy and competitive elections for the revival of national democracy.
Author: Tasya
Editor: Gusti Grehenson
Post-editor: Lintang