Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the threat of a prolonged dry season due to El Niño, the government is expected to face difficulties meeting domestic fuel supply needs. This situation is further exacerbated by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Indonesia’s kerosene demand still relies on Middle Eastern imports by around 20–25 percent.
Professor of the Faculty of Engineering at Universitas Gadjah Mada (FT UGM), Professor Deendarlianto, highlighted the vulnerability of Indonesia’s energy security, which can only sustain itself for 20 to 22 days without a new supply. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s oil demand is 1.5 million barrels per day, while domestic production is only 600,000 barrels per day. As a result, Indonesia remains dependent on imported oil across various sectors.
“If no new supply enters within 22 days, it would pose significant risks to industrialization, transportation, electricity, and even trigger potential social unrest,” he said on Thursday (Apr. 2).
Professor Deendarlianto appreciated the government’s anticipatory measures to address the current energy crisis through renewable energy. One example is the implementation of the B50 policy, which involves blending biofuel (biodiesel) into diesel fuel to reduce import dependency. This policy has been established and will take effect on July 1, 2026.
According to him, several policies, such as the Work From Home (WFH) policy, need further evaluation. While some activities can be conducted digitally, certain sectors still require direct interaction, such as science and technology.
“I think it is a good idea, but it needs deeper assessment and should not be generalized,” Professor Deendarlianto said.
In addition, he emphasized other potential measures, including promoting ethanol and utilizing biological resources such as sorghum and cassava as gasoline substitutes. He also encouraged the development of Dimethyl Ether (DME) as a substitute for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).
“When gas prices rise due to supply chain disruptions, renewable energy must be developed. This issue should serve as momentum for an energy transition and for the advancement of university research in the energy sector,” he stressed.
Furthermore, the El Niño phenomenon, predicted by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) to occur in the second half of 2026, raises concerns across multiple sectors, especially with rising fuel prices. These include the operations of hydroelectric power plants and the agricultural sector, which depends on diesel fuel for water pumps during the dry season.
“Several renewable energy sources can be utilized to replace diesel, including microalgae, biodiesel, and solar energy,” he added.
He further noted that energy development requires careful planning. With the National Energy General Plan (RUEN) in place, the government must ensure its proper implementation while encouraging industrial growth in the sector. National energy development should be accompanied by effective policy execution and the strengthening of domestic energy industries, both fossil-based and renewable.
“If the industry grows domestically, it will accelerate the national economy. However, we must not have a national energy policy that still promotes imports,” he concluded.
Author: Jesi
Editor: Gusti Grehenson
Post-editor: Jasmine Ferdian
Photo: Madaniberkelanjutan.id