The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts a 50–70 percent likelihood of La Niña occurring in Indonesia between October 2025 and January 2026. Based on its index and duration, the potential is categorized as weak, meaning its impact will likely remain localized. While rainfall intensity may increase, the rise is expected to be moderate and vary across regions.
Lecturer at the UGM Faculty of Geography, Dr. Emilya Nurjani, explained that La Niña occurs due to differences in air pressure that lead to an increase in pressure over the Pacific Ocean.
During La Niña events, air pressure in Indonesia tends to be lower than that over the eastern Pacific Ocean near South America, resulting in a higher likelihood of rainfall in Indonesia.
“Essentially, La Niña is a disturbance that cannot be prevented, as it is a regional air pressure system that may even extend to a global scale,” said Dr. Nurjani on Thursday (Oct. 23).
According to Dr. Nurjani, the regions most frequently affected by La Niña typically begin from eastern Indonesia and move gradually westward. Due to Indonesia’s diverse topography, the impact is highly localized. Not all regions experience the same effects.
“La Niña’s influence in Yogyakarta, for example, may not be the same as in Kalimantan or Jakarta,” she explained.
Dr. Nurjani further suggested that BMKG should continue to improve the clarity of its public advisories by using language that is more accessible to communities.
BMKG regularly issues early warnings on climate and extreme weather, but these are sometimes misunderstood. For instance, many people assume that the dry season means no rain and the rainy season means constant rain.
“In reality, that’s not the case. Both seasons are identified based on rainfall intensity,” she clarified.
In conclusion, Dr. Emilya emphasized the importance of public education regarding La Niña. Many people believe that La Niña will automatically lead to continuous rainfall and flooding, whereas its impact depends on regional conditions.
“The effects cannot be generalized across Indonesia. Weather and climate impacts must always be considered in their local contexts,” she added.
Author: Jesi
Editor: Gusti Grehenson
Post-editor: Rajendra Arya
Illustration: Freepik