Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have once again raised concerns about the stability of global energy supplies. The security situation around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main oil trade routes, has created uncertainty for tanker shipping activities. For decades, this maritime corridor has served as a vital route for distributing oil from the Middle East to many countries. Disruptions to global energy routes could trigger a surge in oil prices and affect the economic stability of numerous nations. An energy studies expert from Universitas Gadjah Mada, Dr. Rachmawan Budiarto, emphasized that this situation requires close attention, as it could affect Indonesia’s national energy security, particularly fuel availability.
Rachmawan began his analysis by placing the energy issue within a broader framework. He explained that, from a macro perspective, there is a concept known as the energy trilemma. This concept emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between energy supply security, price affordability, and environmental sustainability. These three aspects form the basis for formulating national energy policies.
“In the context of energy, we always talk about three main elements: the security of energy supply, the affordability of energy prices, and the impact on the environment,” he said on Thursday (Mar. 5) during a discussion session at Pojok Bulaksumur.
According to Rachmawan, disruptions to energy routes, such as those around the Strait of Hormuz, should be viewed as a serious risk to the global energy system. He noted that although the direct impacts may not yet be fully felt, the potential supply disruption is already evident in movements in global oil prices. In recent days, oil prices have risen beyond the assumptions underlying the state budget plan. This situation demonstrates that the global energy market is highly sensitive to geopolitical dynamics.
“If we look at oil price movements, they have already exceeded the assumptions used in the state budget, which shows that the risk of supply disruption is already in sight,” Rachmawan explained.
In addition to rising prices, disruptions in shipping routes are beginning to affect global energy distribution. Rachmawan explained that several tanker ships have had to delay their journeys due to the security situation in the area. Some reports, including from Reuters, even mention that hundreds of tanker ships have temporarily halted around energy shipping routes. This condition indicates potential problems with the physical availability of energy supplies.
“Approximately 150 to 200 tanker ships have had to stop, which already indicates an issue on the energy availability side,” he said.
This situation serves as a reminder of the vulnerability of Indonesia’s energy system. Rachmawan emphasized that dependence on foreign energy supplies makes Indonesia highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. When global energy distribution routes are disrupted, energy-importing countries will immediately feel the impact. According to him, this dependence should be understood as a strategic issue in national energy policy.
“Entrusting the fate of our energy supply to other countries is more or less like handing our neck to someone else,” Rachmawan warned.
In the short term, he believes the government needs to seek alternative sources of supply to maintain national energy stability. One step that has begun is diversifying oil import sources from various countries. However, Rachmawan noted that this approach also brings new consequences to the energy supply chain. Geographically, importing oil from distant countries requires longer shipping times and higher logistics costs.
“If we import oil from the United States, for example, the geographical distance means shipping time and logistics costs must also be taken into account,” he added.
Beyond supply diversification, Rachmawan also stressed that increasing strategic energy reserves is essential. He explained that Indonesia’s current oil reserves remain relatively limited compared to those of several other countries. Developed countries possess energy reserves that can last for months during supply crises. This condition highlights the need for a long-term strategy in managing national energy reserves.
“Our strategic oil reserves are only around twenty days, while Japan’s can reach around two hundred days,” explained Rachmawan.
Rachmawan believes strengthening energy resilience cannot rely solely on short-term solutions such as import diversification or expanding strategic reserves. He emphasized that Indonesia actually possesses a wide range of domestic energy potentials that can be developed, from geothermal and bioenergy to other new and renewable energy sources. The development of national energy resources must consider environmental sustainability to avoid burdening future generations. According to Rachmawan, the energy decisions made today will determine the direction of Indonesia’s energy development in the long term.
“If the current generation makes the wrong energy decisions, the ones who will bear the consequences will not be us, but future generations who will live decades from now,” he concluded.
Author: Triya Andriyani
Post-editor: Jasmine Ferdian
Photo: Donnie